Beat me to the punch! I had a post on this planned, with relevant statistical tests and data showing
- no jetlag effect (used relative longitude) and arguing like you did that teams arrive early so this shouldn't be a concern
- no climate effect (used relative latitude)
- no crowd effect (used home country ticket allotment proportions)
- an independent home advantage beyond protests
- an independent home advantage beyond possible cheating (focusing on uncheatable events)
- an independent home advantage beyond venue (using time to venue construction and events with more and less standardized venues, and athletes who live in certain countries but compete for different ones, a group I related to climate as well)
- it can't be host-specific events (advantage applies before this practice came into existence (recently) and it applies to older events)
But I guess that post isn't urgent now. Good show!
1). Home court/field advantage. Hosting country athletes are much more likely to have familiarity with the facilities being used for the events. I can imagine this would make a big difference for outdoor sports in particular, for which the playing areas are not necessarily ‘standardized’, ie rowing in one river vs another, golf courses, tennis court surfaces etc.
2. Even in ‘objectively’ judged sports (ie basketball), referees can be influenced by the home crowd.
Money, yes, and motivation. Investing money is just one (significant) expression of a countries motivation.
If winning olympics becomes a bigger thing, a society as whole starts dreaming big. Young athletes start dreaming winning the olympics (instead of “only” becoming world champion or winning the super bowl). And countries start caring by sharing and supporting this dream.
But without the individual athletes doing everything (including the timing, to prioritize the olympics above other events) no medal is won despite all money.
Beat me to the punch! I had a post on this planned, with relevant statistical tests and data showing
- no jetlag effect (used relative longitude) and arguing like you did that teams arrive early so this shouldn't be a concern
- no climate effect (used relative latitude)
- no crowd effect (used home country ticket allotment proportions)
- an independent home advantage beyond protests
- an independent home advantage beyond possible cheating (focusing on uncheatable events)
- an independent home advantage beyond venue (using time to venue construction and events with more and less standardized venues, and athletes who live in certain countries but compete for different ones, a group I related to climate as well)
- it can't be host-specific events (advantage applies before this practice came into existence (recently) and it applies to older events)
But I guess that post isn't urgent now. Good show!
Are you crazy? You should definitely publish that!
I totally agree! That sounds very interesting and as a Data Science nerd I’d love to see it
What is an uncheatable event?
Two other possible factors:
1). Home court/field advantage. Hosting country athletes are much more likely to have familiarity with the facilities being used for the events. I can imagine this would make a big difference for outdoor sports in particular, for which the playing areas are not necessarily ‘standardized’, ie rowing in one river vs another, golf courses, tennis court surfaces etc.
2. Even in ‘objectively’ judged sports (ie basketball), referees can be influenced by the home crowd.
Answering all the questions I never knew I had. Awesome article!
Money, yes, and motivation. Investing money is just one (significant) expression of a countries motivation.
If winning olympics becomes a bigger thing, a society as whole starts dreaming big. Young athletes start dreaming winning the olympics (instead of “only” becoming world champion or winning the super bowl). And countries start caring by sharing and supporting this dream.
But without the individual athletes doing everything (including the timing, to prioritize the olympics above other events) no medal is won despite all money.
Good article, great writing!