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Thank you for this exploration. I am very curious about this topic. I think there is definitely a 'crisis' in VISIBLE homelessness. I live in Austin TX and I see many more persons experiencing homelessness here than I did in North Texas (Dallas-Ft Worth metroplex). I have been led to believe that is largely due to the fact that they are bussed to Austin (and to California) and that policy (and winter weather) is more tolerant here (and California).

I am curious as to how true this is, especially for the unsheltered chronic group.

I am curious if there is a consistent base rate of 'homeless person creation' or if more homeless people are 'created' in different areas. I believe that policy has a strong effect on concentrating homeless people, but I don't have strong evidence for this.

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I actually made graphs for each state and each of the 387 local cities/regions that HUD surveyed (at the end of the post at https://dynomight.net/homeless-crisis/) In particular, there is the plot for Austin Travis County:

https://dynomight.net/img/homeless-crisis/coc/TX-Austin%20Travis%20County.svg

Here it is for Dallas City and County, Irving:

https://dynomight.net/img/homeless-crisis/coc/TX-Dallas%20City%20&%20County,%20Irving.svg

And here it is for Fort Worth, Arlington Tarrant County:

https://dynomight.net/img/homeless-crisis/coc/TX-Fort%20Worth,%20Arlington%20Tarrant%20County.svg

It does look like the rates of unsheltered + mental illness and/or substance abuse homelessness are higher in Austin, although they are increasing in dallas and forth worth, too.

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Ah, thanks for the links. I saw the maps, but I didn't read the part where you had done the cities/regions.

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>I believe that policy has a strong effect on concentrating homeless people, but I don't have strong evidence for this

Yeah I would assume as a chronic homeless person you would probably want to leave places that were hostile to you or where there were no/bad services.

It seems like we don't have enough of the right data to be able to answer all these questions. Kind of crazy that they don't at least take a second survey in like June to try to reduce the seasonality.

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