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Por Poisson's avatar

What do you think of "self-resolving" markets? That way you can ask directly for P(B|do(A))...

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.04305

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Tony's avatar

One way to really solve the issue is to use a (team of) superforcaster(s) instead of a market. Then there are no issues, since they don't get any information from the market price.

Alternatively, we can soon use AI, which seems on track to beat superforecasters.

And note that we can keep track of all the forecasts to see if the (team of) superforcaster(s) is accurate, and maybe pay in line with that.

Although it is not guaranteed based on past performance, it seems that superforcasters can very well distinguish P(A|B) from P(A|do(B)), and likely AI will be able as well soon enough.

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